If religious knowledge, like any other form of knowledge, develops through a process of falsification, then an immutable religious tradition is unattainable. Cultural continuity, on the other hand, allows a given religion to develop with time–and even acknowledge past mistakes–without forsaking the tradition at hand.

To put it bluntly, classical Christianity is itself now our Old Testament… We have to use traditional Christianity in the same way as Christianity itself has always used the Old Testament. In both cases there is a great gulf but there is also continuity of spirit and religious values… When a Christian sings a psalm he knows there is a religion-gap and a culture-gap, but it does not worry him because he believes his faith to be the legitimate successor of the faith of the psalmist. Similarly, since the Enlightenment there has developed a religion-gap and a culture-gap between us and traditional Christianity, but we may still be justified in using the old words if we can plausibly argue that our present faith and spiritual values are the legitimate heirs of the old.

–Don Cupitt, Taking Leave of God (HT: Exploring Our Matrix)

Present-day fundamentalist theology makes a position of cultural continuity nearly impossible, though strangely enough almost no fundamentalist position (perhaps none at all) has remained constant with time.

This past Wednesday Col Maybury, host of the Australian radio show The Starlight Zone, interviewed Shawn and I about covering the far side of the Moon with mirrors as a remotely detectable technosignature.

Listen to the complete (~5 minute) interview at the Starlight Zone

This idea got far more press than either of us had anticipated, so we tried to use our air time to do some damage control and clarify the idea beyond the scope of a brief news write-up. We are currently in the process of drafting the manuscript for submission.

This work is unfunded: We came up with this idea following the Pale Blue Dot III meeting as a solution to particular problems with the SETI approach to finding intelligence; however, we are not funded to develop this idea nor do we have any intentions of proposing construction of mirrors on the Moon to any funding agency. (Our global society can’t even agree upon a consistent program to address climate change issues–I seriously doubt our ability to maintain a long-term signaling project.)

Our signal is omnidirectional: A targeted broadcast such as a radio signal or laser pulse is limited because of its directionality. Our scheme, though, covers the far side of the Moon with mirrors on pivots (with dark solar panels on the opposite side) so that the albedo of the Moon can be effectively changed from 0 to 1, resulting in a 20% change in luminosity for the Earth-Moon system. This change in luminosity will be observable from almost any direction at any time and will not require a targeted broadcast.

Our signal is broadband: Because the light reflected from the Moon’s mirrors comes from the Sun, the detected change in luminosity will span a large section of the electromagnetic spectrum (depending on the particular mirrors used). This further increases our chance of success because we make fewer assumptions about the preferred observational/communicative frequency of extraterrestrials (whereas conventional SETI presumes radio beacons or other narrow-band broadcasts).

This beacon requires current and near-future technology: The mirror/solar panel pivots can be constructed with current technology. Furthermore, we are detecting new extrasolar planets every day. In 2009, Kepler will launch in search of terrestrial planets around other stars, and in the next 10-20 years the Terrestrial Planet Finder will be able to observe these planets and take spectra of their atmospheres. In other words, within the century it will be within our technological grasp not only to build such a signal but also to detect a similar signal around a distant world.

ET’s may use a similar technique: Even if we never construct a technosignature using the Moon, it is conceivable that a technological extraterrestrial society may signal their presence using a similar method. If the Terrestrial Planet Finder were to detect an Earth-sized planet around another star blinking in the prime numbers, we would at least have a hypothesis to explain this seemingly deliberate signal.

NewScientist wrote a short article on an idea Shawn and I have been discussing:

Mounting mirrors on the Moon and using them to signal across space could let ET know we Earthlings are here.

Ever since radio broadcasts began we’ve been trumpeting our presence to nearby parts of the galaxy, so far without reply. To improve the chances of being found, Shawn Domagal-Goldman and Jacob Haqq-Misra of Pennsylvania State University in State College reckon we should cover half of the Moon with mirrors.

Read the full article at NewScientistSpace.

Risk makes us feel alive.

Last day of AbSciCon tomorrow. The conference has been useful and thought provoking, though I have almost reached my saturation level for absorbing new information from fifteen minute talks. I present my talk on the climate of the Archean Earth (2.8 billion years ago) tomorrow morning. I also didn’t realize this until I arrived here, but apparently I have my name on four abstracts at the conference!

A Revised, Hazy Methane Greenhouse for the Archean Earth, J. Haqq-Misra, S. Domagal-Goldman, P. Kasting, J. Kasting

Synthesizing Archean Models and Data: A Self-Consistent Evolutionary History, S. Domagal-Goldman, J. Kasting, J. Haqq-Misra

Sustainability and the Fermi Paradox, J. Haqq-Misra

TPF-SETI, S. Domagal-Goldman, J. Haqq-Misra

Compared to the other conferences I’ve attended, it’s quite rewarding to feel like I’ve contributed something to the astrobiology community. More on the conference when I get back this weekend!

…sez Tower of Power!

Seth came to visit last week, Frank Warren gave a talk on Monday, I trekked down to Harrisburg last night for the Average White Band & ToP show, and I’ve stayed busy this week preparing for the Astrobiology Science Conference in Santa Clara next week. I’ve been away from blogging, but I’m having fun!

I’ve been thinking that before leaving this region of the country I need to take six months off my life and hike the Appalachian Trail, which I could reasonably do ~2-3 years from now, after graduation. Talking with Ryan last week got me interested in a southbound hike:

Southbound thru-hikers start in June or July at Katahdin and finish in Georgia in November or December. A southbound hike will allow you much more solitude, but you will be “breaking in” on the most rugged part of the Trail. A Maine-to-Georgia hike also requires that you traverse long distances between resupply points in the early part of your trek. In many ways it’s a tougher hike than a northbound thru-hike. Fewer than 500 people have reported completion of the A.T. southbound.

Ryan mentioned that a friend who traveled southbound was treated differently by northbound hikers, from shouts of “You’re going the wrong way!” to near animosity at times. I’ll enjoy the near-solitude of southbound travel, but I’m still looking for a traveling companion…

Reading between the lines, I think Jesus’ association with the “sinful” crowd must have drawn criticism because he participated in their festivities; after all, you don’t make many friends at a party as a wallflower (and you don’t provide extra wine at a wedding only to not drink).

Then Levi gave a great banquet for him in his house; and there was a large crowd of tax-collectors and others sitting at the table with them. The Pharisees and their scribes were complaining to his disciples, saying, ‘Why do you eat and drink with tax-collectors and sinners?’ Jesus answered, ‘Those who are well have no need of a physician, but those who are sick; I have come to call not the righteous but sinners to repentance.’
(Luke 5:29-32)

I think if Jesus lived today he would attend keg parties and hit the night clubs–the modern equivalent of “tax collectors and sinners”. It’s rather interesting that many religious conservatives warn against the very associations that Jesus kept as part of his ministry.

Perhaps it’s my upbringing, but I’ve never been a fan of television viewing instead of conversation at dinner. Some of my friends enjoy this practice, though, so I occasionally find myself crowded along one side of a table to find our primary mealtime entertainment in whatever program happens to be on. It’s not even that I abhor television in general; I would just rather spend a meal with friends or family in conversation, discussion, storytelling, or laughter.

I wonder if certain unhealthy relationships tend to last longer because of television as a mealtime entertainer. These meals count as time spent together, but because of the limited degree of interactivity, such a couple could spend an entire dinner without sharing more than a few sentences. Thus, conflict that would otherwise arise through discussion or conversation is avoided and delayed, the continuing lack of communication building toward the ultimate demise.

This is not to say that all television viewing disrupts relationships, but I think in many cases the replacement of interaction with television viewing creates a false sense of relational stability.

I’m not a huge college basketball fan, but I am a sucker for statistics and random numbers. To predict my bracket for this year’s NCAA tournament, I wanted to improve upon the technique of a weighted coin prediction based on each team’s standing, so I used the log5 method (HT: Action Allen) to estimate a winning percentage of team A over team B, given each team’s record.

Instead of a single weighted coin flip, though, I ran a random number of trials between 0 and the percent chance of team A losing. For example, if team A has a 90% probability of defeating team B, then the predicted winner will succeed in the best of up to 10 trials, whereas a 50% chance would mean anywhere from 0 to 50 trials. (Python code for the algorithm appears below, where the inputs A and B are the season win percentages of two teams.)

This method is advantageous because it generally favors stronger teams while predicting likely candidates for upsets in the 50-60% range. My bracket predicts Tennessee, Kansas, Memphis, and UCLA in the final four, with Memphis taking it all. I probably won’t watch many of the games, but I’m curious to see how my predictions turn out.

import random

def gamePredict(A, B):
   Agamewin = (A - A*B) / (A + B - 2*A*B)
   Agamelose = 1 - Agamewin

   numgames = random.randint(0, round(Agamelose*100))
   Awincount = Alosecount = 0
   for i in range(0, numgames):
      game = random.random()
      if (Agamewin > game):
         Awincount = Awincount + 1
      else:
         Alosecount = Alosecount + 1

   if (Awincount > Alosecount):
      return True
   elif (Awincount < Alosecount):
      return False
   else:
      return gamePredict(A, B)  # Rematch!

Playa Tortuga on Culebrita, Puerto Rico

This past week I enjoyed a fantastic Puerto Rican vacation in waking life and a beautiful romance in dreams. Only one of them “happened”, but both are now only memories.

I’m with Paul in saying goodbye to February. I’m not surprised that my music listening habits returned to normal as March and Spring glistened on the horizon–and just in time for me to snag April tickets to both Tower of Power and Blue Man Group.

To get an early start on my Spring, I’m off to Puerto Rico for a week of rum drinking, telescope visiting, rainforest tromping, and beach bumming! In addition, I’m also looking forward to finishing revisions on my book (~60% done) and reading Frans de Waal’s Primates and Philosophers.

Have a great week, everyone!

If everyone buried their head in the sand, nearly all of our problems would disappear.

I admire the vows of poverty taken by monks to simplify their lives, but it seems like certain possessions would be difficult to give up altogether. We keep objects with irreplaceable sentimental value on display to remind us of people, places, and events in our past and rekindle the memories of our experiences.

I would more easily part with consumer electronics, I think, than permanently dispose of certain memorabilia, but perhaps detachment from the past benefits the monastic pursuit.

I once described civilization as a first-aid kit carried on the shoulders of the naked ape, which was so heavy that it caused blisters on his feet–that required first aid. The naked ape, the human animal, is always trying to get back to its biological norm, but without giving up its new trappings.

–Desmond Morris, The Nature of Happiness